Weak Countries; Big Bluffs    

George Friedman

    
   Marvin Olasky occasionally interviews George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures. His insights are so interesting we can't help but pass on a few, summarized. For example, a decade ago he said Libya was a mistake and that Syria would be crucial. He was right. 

Q. We hear China is strong and mighty. Is it? 

   The Chinese economy is staggeringly weak. 
Their banks - the first place you see problems - are in trouble. It isn't overtaking the United States, not even close. The "One Belt, One Road" project is not happening.

Q. Are big media seeing problems in the U.S., but not in the Chinese regime?

   It's a general tendency. During the Cold War, we vastly overrated Soviet military capability. By overrating, we over-matched and overawed the Russians.

Q. With China's rapid growth ended, is the Communist Party trying to cover up major social contractions by increasing pressure on dissidents? 

   Very much so. The system is failing. What does a regime do? Fix it - hard to do - or frighten people. With American economic pressure, the Hong Kong affair, and the regime's failure in the South China Sea, there must be unease about Xi Jinping.  

Q. Ten years ago you predicted that in Venezuela, "Hugo Chavez will lose power within the regime he created." Which did happen.

   Chavez, as a dreamer, was irrational, but he was already losing power because drug dealers and Cuban intelligence operatives were coming in. 
His successor, Nicolas Maduro, is a thug.

Q. Don't revolutions always go that way? 

   Yes, it takes a thug to impose the ideology. 

More of this WORLD magazine interview to follow.