Thursday, July 26, 2018

Seven Power Players      

   Who will be up or down a year from now? Marvin Olasky interviews George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures

Donald Trump. Where he is. He doesn't have enough support to rise, and he has enough opposition to keep him where he is. He represents a real movement. He can fall in 2020, but that movement isn't going away.

Vladimir Putin. Precisely where he is, bluffing. His economy is a wreck. His military is not capable of managing the Syrian situation. It's a complete disaster for him.

Xi Jinping. He is much weaker than he appears. He has economic and financial problems. He can't fix it without hurting people. He is arresting anyone who might respond. The myth that this is another Mao Zedong is just a myth.

Recep Erdogan. He will be even stronger. He is in charge and is the one leader in the area whose power can't be questioned internally. 

Benjamin Netanyahu. It's possible he will be out, but whoever replaces him will basically have the same position. Israel's political structure is fairly stable. It is heavily tilted toward right-wing nationalists. The old left is in decline. 

Angela Merkel. Finished. Her power is a shadow of what it was. In some ways (the opposition party is) the more powerful member of the coalition. They now control finance and foreign policy. 

Nicolas Maduro Moros. It's crazy. They are smuggling diapers across the boarder from Columbia. The army refuses to take out Maduro. Oppositions are waging war against each other (vying to be) the next cabinet minister after Maduro leaves. Therefore they can't force him out. No one on the outside has enough interest to intervene. No one in Venezuela has enough power to replace him. 
Tomorrow: What can the U.S. do? 




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